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How many copies did The Swapper sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 480k–780k
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Swapper and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including The Swapper's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 160k–1.5M
best case 4.2M (INSIDE)
Games like The Swapper

A typical game among these

≈ 160k–1.5M copies

≈ $1.2M–$13.5M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 4 similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: INSIDE at ≈ 3.2M–5.2M copies, ≈ $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle-Platformer (3 of 4) and Metroidvania (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2.5D + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $25.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
7.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Iconoclasts
2018
Est. copies
≈ 153k–249k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$841k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePixel Graphics
Recursed
2016
Est. copies
≈ 28k–45k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$62k–$165k after Steam's cut $112k–$254k before Steam's cut
$7.99
673 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndiePuzzle
Supraland
2019
Est. copies
≈ 446k–725k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerExploration

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