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How many copies did Are you ready for Valve Index? sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 28k–46k
from 989 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Are you ready for Valve Index? and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Are you ready for Valve Index?'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 158k–176k
best case 4.7M (Soundpad)
Games like Are you ready for Valve Index?

A typical game among these

≈ 158k–176k copies

≈ $813k–$1.4M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Soundpad at ≈ 3.6M–5.9M copies, ≈ $4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 139 reviews in their first month; the range was 49 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Software (6 of 8) and VR (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Software + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Utilities + Shooter + Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SteamVR Performance Test
2016
Est. copies
≈ 220k–358k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRBenchmark
SteamVR
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
VRSoftware
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Neos VR
2018
Est. copies
≈ 69k–112k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayVR
OVR Advanced Settings
2020
Est. copies
≈ 130k–211k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$285k–$767k after Steam's cut $518k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$7.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
VRUtilities
Bigscreen Beta
2016
Est. copies
≈ 135k–220k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
VRFree to Play
Firefighting Simulator - The Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 132k–215k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$907k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationMultiplayer
VRoid Studio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 118k–191k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAnimation & Modeling

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.