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How many copies did Lilitales sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 19k–31k
$103k–$278k after Steam's cut $188k–$428k before Steam's cut
from 653 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lilitales and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lilitales's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 249k–382k
best case 3.3M (Mirror)
Games like Lilitales

A typical game among these

≈ 249k–382k copies

≈ $2.3M–$2.7M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Mirror at ≈ 2.6M–4.1M copies, ≈ $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (8 of 8) and Mature (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sexual Content + Nudity, priced around $2. The breakout hits carry Match 3 + Hentai + NSFW; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Material Girl
2017
Est. copies
≈ 304k–495k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Haydee
2016
Est. copies
≈ 278k–451k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Action Taimanin
2020
Est. copies
≈ 482k–783k
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
19k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 190k–309k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
NuditySexual Content
Dragonia
2017
Est. copies
≈ 190k–309k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Dark Elf
2017
Est. copies
≈ 167k–272k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Angel Legion
2020
Est. copies
≈ 275k–447k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
11k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentMature

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.