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How many copies did GEESE vs CTHULHU sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$425–$1k after Steam's cut $773–$2k before Steam's cut
from 63 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GEESE vs CTHULHU and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GEESE vs CTHULHU's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–4k
best case 485k (Friends vs Friends)
Games like GEESE vs CTHULHU

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–4k copies

≈ $2k–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~105 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Friends vs Friends at ≈ 369k–600k copies, ≈ $1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 29 reviews in their first month; the range was 15 to 4k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (5 of 8) and Arena Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Game + Old School, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Card Game + Old School + Online Co-Op; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Action-AdventureAction Roguelike
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Est. copies
≈ 369k–600k
143x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
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Est. copies
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too small to compare
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Est. revenue
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Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$10k before Steam's cut
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