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How many copies did Urtuk: The Desolation sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 63k–103k
$244k–$657k after Steam's cut $444k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Urtuk: The Desolation and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Urtuk: The Desolation's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 274k–1.2M
best case 1.2M (Wartales)
Games like Urtuk: The Desolation

A typical game among these

≈ 274k–1.2M copies

≈ $2.6M–$15.4M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Wartales at ≈ 899k–1.5M copies, ≈ $8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (3 of 4) and Turn-Based Tactics (3 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Turn-Based Strategy, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wartales
2023
Est. copies
≈ 899k–1.5M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$34.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Fights in Tight Spaces
2021
Est. copies
≈ 98k–160k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$677k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyAction
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children
2020
Est. copies
≈ 246k–399k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGTactical RPG
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG

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