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How many copies did Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7k–11k
$37k–$99k after Steam's cut $67k–$152k before Steam's cut
from 269 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 187–1k
best case 3k (东方远空界 ~ Ultimate Vitality of Imagination)
Games like Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経

A typical game among these

≈ 187–1k copies

≈ $295–$6k after Steam's cut

from ~9 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: 东方远空界 ~ Ultimate Vitality of Imagination at ≈ 2k–4k copies, ≈ $6k–$17k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 41.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (6 of 8) and Flight (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Bullet Hell + Faith, priced around $10.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SpaceFlight
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FlightSimulation
东方远空界 ~ Ultimate Vitality of Imagination
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11x vs typical
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$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before Steam's cut
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CasualBullet Hell
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AdventureSpace

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