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How many copies did Warhammer 40,000: Darktide sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3.5M–5.6M
$38.0M–$102.2M after Steam's cut $69.1M–$157.2M before Steam's cut
from 139k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Warhammer 40,000: Darktide and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Warhammer 40,000: Darktide's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 404k–1.8M
best case 3.1M (Battlefield: Bad Company™ 2)
Games like Warhammer 40,000: Darktide

A typical game among these

≈ 404k–1.8M copies

≈ $3.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Battlefield: Bad Company™ 2 at ≈ 2.4M–3.8M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Team-Based (3 of 3) and First-Person (2 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 3 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Isonzo
2022
Est. copies
≈ 429k–696k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.6M–$21.9M before Steam's cut
$44.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
AtmosphericSimulation
Midnight Ghost Hunt
2024
Est. copies
≈ 187k–304k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Mostly Positive
MultiplayerCombat
Battlefield: Bad Company™ 2
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.8M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
37k reviews
Very Positive
FPSMultiplayer

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