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How many copies did Draft of Darkness sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$37k–$100k after Steam's cut $68k–$154k before Steam's cut
from 364 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Draft of Darkness and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Draft of Darkness's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 402k–439k
best case 16.6M (Lethal Company)
Games like Draft of Darkness

A typical game among these

≈ 402k–439k copies

≈ $3.0M–$3.5M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Roguelike Deckbuilder (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Lethal Company at ≈ 12.7M–20.6M copies, ≈ $34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 35k reviews in their first month; the range was 31 to 114k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Roguelike Deckbuilder (4 of 8) and Card Battler (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Roguelike Deckbuilder + Card Game, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Online Co-Op + Horror + First-Person; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dicey Dungeons
2019
Est. copies
≈ 343k–558k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Roguelike DeckbuilderCard Battler
Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.3M
18x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
220k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Lethal Company
2023
Est. copies
≈ 12.7M–20.6M
43x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut $63.3M–$144.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
511k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Across the Obelisk
2022
Est. copies
≈ 326k–529k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy
Escape the Backrooms
2025
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$11.4M–$30.6M after Steam's cut $20.7M–$47.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
167k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
Cards of the Dead
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$24k before Steam's cut
$7.99
106 reviews
Mostly Positive
ControllerAction
Content Warning
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$7.99
164k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Book of Demons
2018
Est. copies
≈ 287k–467k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Very Positive

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