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How many copies did Challenge Dream Cat sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$432–$1k after Steam's cut $786–$2k before Steam's cut
from 64 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Challenge Dream Cat and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Challenge Dream Cat's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–9.1M
best case 13.0M (Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition)
Games like Challenge Dream Cat

A typical game among these

≈ 4.3M–9.1M copies

≈ $13.7M–$24.9M after Steam's cut

from ~84k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (1 of 3), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition at ≈ 9.9M–16.1M copies, ≈ $13.6M–$36.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (1 of 3) and Classic (1 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + Zombies, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition
2009
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.5M after Steam's cut $24.7M–$56.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
156k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseZombies
LIMBO
2011
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.5M–$55.8M before Steam's cut
$12.49
62k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerIndie

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