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How many copies did Melodier sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 521–846
$142–$381 after Steam's cut $258–$586 before Steam's cut
from 21 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Melodier and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Melodier's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–1.9M
best case 4.7M (Soundpad)
Games like Melodier

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–1.9M copies

≈ $2k–$4.9M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 4 similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Soundpad at ≈ 3.6M–5.9M copies, ≈ $4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Music (4 of 4) and Audio Production (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Utilities + Audio Production, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

AudioSurf
2008
Est. copies
≈ 702k–1.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$8.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MusicRhythm
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
19x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Nachkriegsratten Punk-Rock Puzzle
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$4.99
42 reviews
Positive
CasualAudio Production
Classical Music Minesweeper
2022
Est. copies
≈ 174–282
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$143–$384 after Steam's cut $260–$590 before Steam's cut
$2.99
7 reviews
7 user reviews
PuzzleMusic

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.