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How many copies did NeoPiano sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–4k
$7k–$19k after Steam's cut $13k–$30k before Steam's cut
from 106 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NeoPiano and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NeoPiano's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 10k–20k
best case 549k (Action! - Gameplay Recording and Streaming)
Games like NeoPiano

A typical game among these

≈ 10k–20k copies

≈ $156k–$302k after Steam's cut

from ~355 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Action! - Gameplay Recording and Streaming at ≈ 418k–679k copies, ≈ $3.4M–$9.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6 reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 8.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Audio Production (8 of 8) and Video Production (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Video Production + Audio Production, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Action + Web Publishing; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Action! - Gameplay Recording and Streaming
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21x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.