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How many copies did Alan Wake's American Nightmare sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 552k–897k
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.6M before the cut
from 11k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Alan Wake's American Nightmare out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Alan Wake's American Nightmare's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 28.0M–47.9M
best case 71.5M (Left 4 Dead 2)

All 4 of your similar games are hits. A big, proven genre for a game like yours.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

A typical game
≈ 28.0M–47.9M copies
≈ $142.3M–$225.8M after Steam's cut
from ~841k reviews
Best case
≈ 54.5M–88.5M copies
Left 4 Dead 2 · ≈ $149.6M–$402.3M after Steam's cut
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Survival (3 of 4) and Co-op (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2009 to 2018, a genre with a long track record.

Copies and revenue are rough lifetime estimates from the review count.

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.6M–33.5M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.4M–$304.8M after Steam's cut $206.1M–$468.9M before the cut
$19.99
678k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Left 4 Dead 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 54.5M–88.5M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$149.6M–$402.3M after Steam's cut $272.1M–$618.9M before the cut
$9.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 21.6M–35.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$88.9M–$239.1M after Steam's cut $161.7M–$367.9M before the cut
$14.99
539k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.5M–49.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$41.9M–$112.5M after Steam's cut $76.1M–$173.1M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.