How much revenue did Alan Wake's American Nightmare make?

$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Alan Wake's American Nightmare sell?

Q: How many copies did Alan Wake's American Nightmare sell?

688k to 1.1M copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 688k–1.1M; $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut; from 11k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alan Wake's American Nightmare and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Alan Wake's American Nightmare's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 29.1M–52.5M

best case 88.0M (Left 4 Dead 2)

Games like Alan Wake's American Nightmare

A typical game among these

≈ 29.1M–52.5M copies

≈ $148.6M–$242.8M after Steam's cut

from ~851k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 67.0M–108.9M copies, ≈ $184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Survival (3 of 4) and Co-op (2 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2009 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Left 4 Dead 2 2009	Est. copies ≈ 67.0M–108.9M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue $184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut $334.7M–$761.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.1M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesCo-op
Don't Starve Together 2016	Est. copies ≈ 22.6M–36.8M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	544k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities