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How many copies did Senpai Arena sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 322–524
$353–$952 after Steam's cut $642–$1k before Steam's cut
from 13 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Senpai Arena and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Senpai Arena's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 134k–174k
best case 468k (Murder Miners)
Games like Senpai Arena

A typical game among these

≈ 134k–174k copies

≈ $540k–$675k after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Murder Miners at ≈ 356k–579k copies, ≈ $293k–$787k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 54 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 4k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Zombies (6 of 8) and Arena Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Level Editor + Arena Shooter, priced around $3.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Murder Miners
2014
Est. copies
≈ 356k–579k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$293k–$787k after Steam's cut $533k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$2.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Level EditorSplit Screen
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD
2017
Est. copies
≈ 128k–208k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$140k–$377k after Steam's cut $255k–$580k before Steam's cut
$3.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesTop-Down Shooter
Red Solstice 2: Survivors
2021
Est. copies
≈ 82k–134k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$339k–$912k after Steam's cut $617k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Mixed
Strategy RPGZombies
Atom Zombie Smasher
2011
Est. copies
≈ 133k–216k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$366k–$984k after Steam's cut $665k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Real Time TacticsTower Defense
Dig Bombers
2020
Est. copies
≈ 273–443
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
11 reviews
Positive
ActionStrategy
Cepheus Protocol
2020
Est. copies
≈ 93k–152k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$514k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $934k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
SandboxZombies
Call of Coronga
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
$3.99
62 reviews
Mixed
Spectacle fighterArena Shooter
BrainBread 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 129k–210k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayZombies

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