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How many copies did Start an egg sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 8k–14k
$37k–$100k after Steam's cut $67k–$153k before Steam's cut
from 340 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Start an egg and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Start an egg's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 326–6k
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like Start an egg

A typical game among these

≈ 326–6k copies

≈ $2k–$22k after Steam's cut

from ~14 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Action RPG (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 128.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action RPG (4 of 8) and Exploration (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Strategy, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Strategy + Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
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14736x vs typical
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