How much revenue did Oxenfree make?

$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Oxenfree sell?

Q: How many copies did Oxenfree sell?

504k to 820k copies, based on its 12k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 504k–820k; $1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut; from 12k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Oxenfree and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Oxenfree's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.5M–32.5M

best case 57.5M (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered)

Games like Oxenfree

A typical game among these

≈ 7.5M–32.5M copies

≈ $130.5M–$643.0M after Steam's cut

from ~189k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered at ≈ 43.8M–71.2M copies, ≈ $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (3 of 3) and Historical (2 of 3).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $50.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.7M–$125.6M after Steam's cut $84.9M–$193.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	186k reviews Very Positive	MedievalRPG
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	189k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.8M–71.2M 4.8x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut	$49.99	898k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG