How much revenue did Little Nightmares make?

$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Little Nightmares sell?

Q: How many copies did Little Nightmares sell?

4.0M to 6.5M copies, based on its 117k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4.0M–6.5M; $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut; from 117k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Little Nightmares and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Little Nightmares's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 24.6M–34.0M

best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)

Games like Little Nightmares

A typical game among these

≈ 24.6M–34.0M copies

≈ $74.9M–$234.6M after Steam's cut

from ~597k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (3 of 4) and Horror (3 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Dying Light 2015	Est. copies ≈ 24.2M–39.3M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	496k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesSurvival Horror
Lethal Company 2023	Est. copies ≈ 12.7M–20.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut $63.3M–$144.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	511k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Online Co-OpHorror