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How many copies did Red Trigger sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 84k–136k
$161k–$432k after Steam's cut $292k–$665k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Red Trigger and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Red Trigger's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 127k–4.6M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Red Trigger

A typical game among these

≈ 127k–4.6M copies

≈ $475k–$34.2M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (7 of 8) and 3D Platformer (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
55x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Supraland
2019
Est. copies
≈ 446k–725k
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerExploration
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
128x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Hamilton's Great Adventure
2011
Est. copies
≈ 23k–37k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$62k–$167k after Steam's cut $113k–$256k before Steam's cut
$9.99
357 reviews
Mostly Positive
Local Co-OpAdventure
DeadCore
2014
Est. copies
≈ 114k–186k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$314k–$845k after Steam's cut $571k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerAction
SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell
2016
Est. copies
≈ 127k–207k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$525k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $955k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerParkour
The Ball
2010
Est. copies
≈ 73k–119k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$201k–$541k after Steam's cut $366k–$832k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
3D PlatformerPuzzle-Platformer
Grimhook
2023
Est. copies
≈ 105k–170k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionAdventure

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