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How many copies did MX vs ATV All Out sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 52k–84k
$570k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MX vs ATV All Out and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including MX vs ATV All Out's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–5.5M
best case 9.2M (Forza Horizon 5)
Games like MX vs ATV All Out

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–5.5M copies

≈ $21.3M–$120.6M after Steam's cut

from ~49k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Forza Horizon 5 at ≈ 7.0M–11.4M copies, ≈ $115.3M–$310.1M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (3 of 3) and Driving (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assetto Corsa Competizione
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.4M–$41.4M after Steam's cut $28.0M–$63.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
49k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
DiRT Rally 2.0
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
49k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Forza Horizon 5
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.0M–11.4M
5.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$115.3M–$310.1M after Steam's cut $209.7M–$477.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
282k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.