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How many copies did The Tiny Bang Story sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 420k–683k
$577k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Tiny Bang Story and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Tiny Bang Story's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 98–381
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like The Tiny Bang Story

A typical game among these

≈ 98–381 copies

≈ $104–$814 after Steam's cut

from ~4 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 3 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (8 of 8) and Physics (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Puzzle-Platformer + 3D Platformer + Sci-fi; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Bomb Bowling 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 346–562
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$475–$1k after Steam's cut $863–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
12 reviews
Positive
PuzzlePhysics
Bomb Bowling
2019
Est. copies
≈ 893–1k
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$4.99
31 reviews
Positive
IndiePuzzle
Rope Bowling
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$20–$55 after Steam's cut $37–$84 before Steam's cut
$2.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
CasualPhysics
Candy gun
2021
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$340–$918 after Steam's cut $619–$1k before Steam's cut
$9.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
PePiBo: Peregrino Pinata Bowling
2021
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$163–$440 after Steam's cut $296–$677 before Steam's cut
$7.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
CasualSports
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
49867x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
56806x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Puzzle Bowling
2020
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$20–$55 after Steam's cut $37–$84 before Steam's cut
$0.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
CasualRelaxing

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