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How many copies did Death Waves sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 518–842
$141–$380 after Steam's cut $256–$584 before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Death Waves and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Death Waves's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 994k–2.2M
best case 2.4M (Back 4 Blood)
Games like Death Waves

A typical game among these

≈ 994k–2.2M copies

≈ $12.2M–$46.8M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Back 4 Blood at ≈ 1.8M–3.0M copies, ≈ $30.0M–$80.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Zombies (8 of 8) and FPS (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + FPS, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Killing Floor
2009
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.4M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
69k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSZombies
Back 4 Blood
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.8M after Steam's cut $54.6M–$124.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
73k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesOnline Co-Op
Dead Island Definitive Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.5M after Steam's cut $11.8M–$26.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesOpen World
Infestation: The New Z
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
34k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesFree to Play
Call of Duty®: WWII
2017
Est. copies
≈ 316k–513k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.2M–$14.0M after Steam's cut $9.5M–$21.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
World War IIFPS
Call of Duty®: WWII
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.8M–$72.0M after Steam's cut $48.7M–$110.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
47k reviews
Mostly Positive
World War IIFPS
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War
2023
Est. copies
≈ 586k–952k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$9.7M–$26.0M after Steam's cut $17.6M–$40.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
24k reviews
Mostly Positive
SingleplayerFPS
World War Z
2021
Est. copies
≈ 815k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$18.1M after Steam's cut $12.2M–$27.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesMultiplayer

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