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How many copies did Paradox Vector sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$5k–$13k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before Steam's cut
from 73 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paradox Vector and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paradox Vector's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 93k–837k
best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Paradox Vector

A typical game among these

≈ 93k–837k copies

≈ $1.1M–$5.3M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 899 reviews in their first month; the range was 132 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Shooter (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Shooter + FPS. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Survival + Battle Royale; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

CULTIC
2022
Est. copies
≈ 218k–354k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$599k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Boomer ShooterFPS
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
374x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 624.8M–1015.3M
1326x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.9M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
Shrine II
2020
Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
868 reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
DUSK
2018
Est. copies
≈ 778k–1.3M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.5M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
26k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Boomer ShooterFPS
Forgive Me Father
2022
Est. copies
≈ 152k–246k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$834k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
FPSBoomer Shooter
Quake
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
Monument
2015
Est. copies
≈ 44k–72k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$24k–$65k after Steam's cut $44k–$100k before Steam's cut
$1.99
903 reviews
Mostly Positive
Arena ShooterBoomer Shooter

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