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How many copies did Fade Out sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 288–468
from 10 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fade Out and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fade Out's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 98–2k
best case 27.4M (Phasmophobia)
Games like Fade Out

A typical game among these

≈ 98–2k copies

≈ $235–$12k after Steam's cut

from ~17 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Phasmophobia at ≈ 20.9M–33.9M copies, ≈ $114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 40k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (6 of 8) and VR (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Co-op + Supernatural; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Phasmophobia
2020
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–33.9M
49514x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
842k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
The Corridor: On Behalf Of The Dead
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
36 reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorInvestigation
The Room VR: A Dark Matter
2020
Est. copies
≈ 100k–162k
237x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$686k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventurePuzzle
Nightmare Rooms VR
2022
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$103–$273 after Steam's cut $187–$420 before Steam's cut
$14.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
Lockdown VR: Kidnapped
2020
Est. copies
≈ 422–685
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$347–$932 after Steam's cut $631–$1k before Steam's cut
$2.99
17 reviews
Mostly Positive
Escape RoomVR
Lockdown VR: Circus of the Dead
2022
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$204–$551 after Steam's cut $371–$847 before Steam's cut
$5.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
Escape RoomVR
Lockdown VR: Forgotten Temple
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$41–$109 after Steam's cut $75–$168 before Steam's cut
$5.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
AdventureCasual
Rooms of Realities
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$8k–$22k after Steam's cut $15k–$35k before Steam's cut
$17.99
68 reviews
Very Positive
VRPuzzle

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