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How many copies did Ritual: Spellcasting RPG sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 864–1k
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$10k before Steam's cut
from 30 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ritual: Spellcasting RPG and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ritual: Spellcasting RPG's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–3.5M
best case 5.3M (Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™)
Games like Ritual: Spellcasting RPG

A typical game among these

≈ 2.3M–3.5M copies

≈ $23.4M–$28.3M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ at ≈ 4.0M–6.6M copies, ≈ $55.4M–$149.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (7 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fantasy + Third Person, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Third Person + Mature + Choices Matter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.4M–$149.1M after Steam's cut $100.8M–$229.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$31.5M–$84.6M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
91k reviews
Very Positive
RPGFantasy
The Witcher: Enhanced Edition Director's Cut
2008
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–9.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.2M–$40.9M after Steam's cut $27.7M–$63.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
RPGFantasy
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.8M–$37.2M after Steam's cut $25.2M–$57.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGOpen World
Lords of the Fallen
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.6M–$31.1M after Steam's cut $21.0M–$47.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
57k reviews
Mixed
Souls-likeExploration
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition Deluxe (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 0
too small to compare
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$0 after Steam's cut $0 before Steam's cut
$19.99
0 reviews
No user reviews
RPGOpen World
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.9M–$45.4M after Steam's cut $30.7M–$69.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
49k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World

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