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How many copies did Breaking Box sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 50 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Breaking Box and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Breaking Box's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.4M–10.6M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Breaking Box

A typical game among these

≈ 2.4M–10.6M copies

≈ $7.3M–$95.8M after Steam's cut

from ~78k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 749 reviews in their first month; the range was 9 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle-Platformer (6 of 8) and Platformer (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BattleBlock Theater®
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.3M after Steam's cut $30.6M–$69.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
A Dance of Fire and Ice
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut
$5.99
84k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic
Vectronom
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$26k–$70k after Steam's cut $47k–$108k before Steam's cut
$9.99
329 reviews
Very Positive
RhythmPuzzle-Platformer
Portal Mortal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 694–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$953–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$4.99
28 reviews
Positive
Precision PlatformerPuzzle-Platformer
DDNet
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
47k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpFree to Play
Chained Together
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAdventure

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