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How many copies did Ambrosia sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 68k–110k
$280k–$753k after Steam's cut $509k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ambrosia and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ambrosia's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 436k–771k
best case 3.3M (Mirror)
Games like Ambrosia

A typical game among these

≈ 436k–771k copies

≈ $2.3M–$2.6M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Mirror at ≈ 2.6M–4.1M copies, ≈ $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 107 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Hentai (8 of 8) and Nudity (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sexual Content + Nudity, priced around $2. The breakout hits carry Match 3 + Female Protagonist; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Soul Dossier
2021
Est. copies
≈ 693k–1.1M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
28k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Action Taimanin
2020
Est. copies
≈ 482k–783k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
19k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Crush Crush
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Winter Memories
2024
Est. copies
≈ 265k–430k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentMature
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy
2024
Est. copies
≈ 389k–632k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$12.99
16k reviews
Mixed
Sexual ContentHentai
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
NEKOPARA Vol. 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 414k–672k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiSexual Content
Angel Legion
2020
Est. copies
≈ 275k–447k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
11k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentMature

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.