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How big is TrackMania Nations Forever?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
from 24k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid TrackMania Nations Forever and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including TrackMania Nations Forever's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.8M–29.5M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like TrackMania Nations Forever

A typical game among these

≈ 4.8M–29.5M copies

≈ $70.0M–$139.5M after Steam's cut

from ~239k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Racing (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 47k reviews in their first month; the range was 115 to 122k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (4 of 8) and Automobile Sim (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2026, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Rocket League®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 28.3M–46.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
580k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerFootball (Soccer)
Crab Game
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
151k reviews
Very Positive
Psychological HorrorMultiplayer
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Forza Horizon 4
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Scrap Mechanic
2026
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.3M–$65.4M after Steam's cut $44.2M–$100.6M before Steam's cut
$28.99
123k reviews
Very Positive
BuildingSandbox
Stumble Guys
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
139k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale

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