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How many copies did GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 71k–116k
$255k–$685k after Steam's cut $463k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 154k–224k
best case 154k (Creeper World 4)
Games like GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath

A typical game among these

≈ 154k–224k copies

≈ $1.1M–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Creeper World 4 at ≈ 117k–191k copies, ≈ $807k–$2.2M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tower Defense (5 of 5) and RTS (4 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + Wargame, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Creeper World 4
2020
Est. copies
≈ 117k–191k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$807k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Tower DefenseWargame
Atom Zombie Smasher
2011
Est. copies
≈ 133k–216k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$366k–$984k after Steam's cut $665k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Real Time TacticsTower Defense
Zombie Defense
2016
Est. copies
≈ 91k–147k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayZombies
Infested Planet
2014
Est. copies
≈ 171k–277k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$704k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTower Defense
Anomaly: Warzone Earth
2011
Est. copies
≈ 297k–482k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$815k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyIndie

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