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How many copies did AREA 51 - DEFENCE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 518–842
$141–$380 after Steam's cut $256–$584 before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid AREA 51 - DEFENCE and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including AREA 51 - DEFENCE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–452k
best case 5.8M (Saints Row: The Third)
Games like AREA 51 - DEFENCE

A typical game among these

≈ 6k–452k copies

≈ $3k–$36k after Steam's cut

from ~528 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Memes (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Saints Row: The Third at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 23 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 385.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Memes (4 of 8) and Satire (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Comedy, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

CRSED: Cuisine Royale
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
73x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
39k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleFree to Play
TYRONE vs COPS
2022
Est. copies
≈ 68k–110k
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$18k–$50k after Steam's cut $34k–$76k before Steam's cut
$0.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
AmericaMemes
Saints Row: The Third
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
132x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
70k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldAction
Someone Cloned The President
2019
Est. copies
≈ 115–187
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$31–$85 after Steam's cut $57–$130 before Steam's cut
$0.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
Third-Person ShooterShooter
Inglorious Waifu VS Nazi Zombies
2021
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$25k before Steam's cut
$1.99
451 reviews
Very Positive
ActionShooter
Evelone Wrath
2023
Est. copies
≈ 223–363
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$122–$329 after Steam's cut $222–$506 before Steam's cut
$1.99
9 reviews
9 user reviews
MemesAction-Adventure
HVS: Hitler VS Stalin - Battle Of Moscow
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6k–9k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
$1.99
224 reviews
Very Positive
Alternate HistoryAction
Arthas - The Game
2023
Est. copies
≈ 15k–24k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$21k–$55k after Steam's cut $37k–$85k before Steam's cut
$4.99
604 reviews
Mostly Positive
MemesAction-Adventure

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.