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How many copies did Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
from 128k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 20.7M–27.3M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 20.7M–27.3M copies

≈ $174.8M–$319.5M after Steam's cut

from ~441k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (3 of 5) and Third Person (2 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
DARK SOULS™ III
2016
Est. copies
≈ 18.3M–29.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$302.7M–$813.9M after Steam's cut $550.4M–$1252.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
441k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG

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