How much revenue did Mahou Arms make?

$184k–$493k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mahou Arms sell?

Q: How many copies did Mahou Arms sell?

17k to 27k copies, based on its 673 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 17k–27k; $184k–$493k after Steam's cut $334k–$759k before Steam's cut; from 673 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mahou Arms and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Mahou Arms's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 29.6M–33.6M

best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)

Games like Mahou Arms

A typical game among these

≈ 29.6M–33.6M copies

≈ $207.1M–$476.0M after Steam's cut

from ~779k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (3 of 3) and Building (2 of 3).
The winners: Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017	Est. copies ≈ 26.8M–43.5M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	779k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival