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How many copies did Pentiment sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 244k–397k
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
from 10k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Pentiment and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Pentiment's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 176k–427k
best case 693k (Murders on the Yangtze River)
Games like Pentiment

A typical game among these

≈ 176k–427k copies

≈ $1.8M–$3.6M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Murders on the Yangtze River at ≈ 528k–858k copies, ≈ $2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 366 to 9k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (8 of 8) and Story Rich (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Story Rich, priced around $42. The breakout hits carry Exploration + Drama + Action-Adventure; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Case of the Golden Idol
2022
Est. copies
≈ 273k–444k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
$17.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MysteryDetective
Syberia: The World Before
2022
Est. copies
≈ 125k–204k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureStory Rich
Murders on the Yangtze River
2024
Est. copies
≈ 528k–858k
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveAdventure
The Rise of the Golden Idol
2024
Est. copies
≈ 103k–167k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$567k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
MysteryInvestigation
Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments
2014
Est. copies
≈ 451k–733k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveAdventure
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
2024
Est. copies
≈ 515k–837k
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$9.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$41.0M before Steam's cut
$69.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureFirst-Person
Call of the Sea
2020
Est. copies
≈ 159k–259k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$875k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePuzzle
Fate Seeker II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 342k–556k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$22.60
14k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMartial Arts

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