How much revenue did Mr. Sun's Hatbox make?

$53k–$143k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mr. Sun's Hatbox sell?

Q: How many copies did Mr. Sun's Hatbox sell?

13k to 21k copies, based on its 521 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 13k–21k; $53k–$143k after Steam's cut $97k–$220k before Steam's cut; from 521 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mr. Sun's Hatbox and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mr. Sun's Hatbox's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.3M–21.7M

best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)

Games like Mr. Sun's Hatbox

A typical game among these

≈ 11.3M–21.7M copies

≈ $83.9M–$218.4M after Steam's cut

from ~262k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Shooter (8 of 8) and FPS (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Shooter + FPS. The breakout hits carry PvP + e-sports; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2000 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 11x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege 2015	Est. copies ≈ 76.0M–123.4M 5.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.6M reviews Very Positive	FPSPvP
Counter-Strike 2000	Est. copies ≈ 16.6M–26.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	262k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ActionFPS
Squad 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.0M–9.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $66.5M–$178.7M after Steam's cut $120.8M–$274.9M before Steam's cut	$39.99	244k reviews Very Positive	MilitaryRealistic
Counter-Strike: Source 2004	Est. copies ≈ 12.2M–19.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $33.6M–$90.3M after Steam's cut $61.0M–$138.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	193k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ShooterFPS
Arma 3 2013	Est. copies ≈ 18.7M–30.4M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $154.1M–$414.3M after Steam's cut $280.2M–$637.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	296k reviews Very Positive	MilitaryAction
Counter-Strike 2 2012	Est. copies ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M 38x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	9.9M reviews Very Positive	FPSShooter
Ready or Not 2023	Est. copies ≈ 8.6M–14.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $118.4M–$318.4M after Steam's cut $215.3M–$489.8M before Steam's cut	$49.99	347k reviews Mostly Positive	TacticalRealistic