How much revenue did Arma 3 make?

$154.1M–$414.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Arma 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did Arma 3 sell?

18.7M to 30.4M copies, based on its 296k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 18.7M–30.4M; $154.1M–$414.3M after Steam's cut $280.2M–$637.4M before Steam's cut; from 296k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Arma 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Arma 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 19.3M–45.3M

best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)

Games like Arma 3

A typical game among these

≈ 19.3M–45.3M copies

≈ $102.2M–$367.4M after Steam's cut

from ~470k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Shooter (6 of 8) and FPS (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Team-Based + e-sports + Tactical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2000 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
War Thunder 2013	Est. copies ≈ 49.7M–80.7M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	786k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlaySimulation
Counter-Strike 2 2012	Est. copies ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M 21x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	9.9M reviews Very Positive	FPSShooter
Counter-Strike 2000	Est. copies ≈ 16.6M–26.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	262k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ActionFPS
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege 2015	Est. copies ≈ 76.0M–123.4M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.6M reviews Very Positive	FPSPvP
DayZ 2018	Est. copies ≈ 14.3M–23.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $196.4M–$527.9M after Steam's cut $357.0M–$812.2M before Steam's cut	$49.99	470k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalOpen World
Titanfall® 2 2020	Est. copies ≈ 7.1M–11.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $58.7M–$158.0M after Steam's cut $106.8M–$243.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	287k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSMechs
Call of Duty® 2022	Est. copies ≈ 19.4M–31.5M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	782k reviews Mixed	FPSMultiplayer
Hearts of Iron IV 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.1M–24.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut $377.6M–$859.1M before Steam's cut	$49.99	363k reviews Very Positive	StrategyWorld War II