How much revenue did Hearts of Iron IV make?

$207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Hearts of Iron IV sell?

Q: How many copies did Hearts of Iron IV sell?

15.1M to 24.6M copies, based on its 363k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 15.1M–24.6M; $207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut $377.6M–$859.1M before Steam's cut; from 363k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hearts of Iron IV and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hearts of Iron IV's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 158k–326k

best case 2.0M (Age of History II)

Games like Hearts of Iron IV

A typical game among these

≈ 158k–326k copies

≈ $1.2M–$2.3M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Age of History II at ≈ 1.5M–2.5M copies, ≈ $2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share World War II (7 of 8) and Grand Strategy (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Historical + War, priced around $6. The breakout hits carry Political Sim + Historical + War; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2009 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Hearts of Iron III 2009	Est. copies ≈ 409k–665k 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	6k reviews Mostly Positive	Grand StrategyStrategy
Darkest Hour: A Hearts of Iron Game 2011	Est. copies ≈ 137k–222k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $375k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $682k–$1.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	2k reviews Very Positive	StrategyGrand Strategy
Supremacy: Call of War 1942 2017	Est. copies ≈ 220k–357k 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	6k reviews Mostly Positive	StrategyFree to Play
Panzer Corps 2 2020	Est. copies ≈ 104k–169k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	4k reviews Very Positive	StrategyWorld War II
Age of History II 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M 12x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before Steam's cut	$5.99	50k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical
Unity of Command II 2019	Est. copies ≈ 64k–104k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $526k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $957k–$2.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	StrategyWorld War II
Panzer Corps Gold 2014	Est. copies ≈ 153k–249k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	3k reviews Very Positive	StrategyWorld War II
Steel Division 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 277k–449k 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.0M–$8.2M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	10k reviews Mostly Positive	StrategyRTS