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How many copies did Erra: Exordium sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$92k before Steam's cut
from 164 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Erra: Exordium and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Erra: Exordium's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–21k
best case 61k (The Darkest Tales — Into the Nightmare)
Games like Erra: Exordium

A typical game among these

≈ 6k–21k copies

≈ $30k–$58k after Steam's cut

from ~377 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: The Darkest Tales — Into the Nightmare at ≈ 46k–75k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 141 reviews in their first month; the range was 18 to 464.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (8 of 8) and Action-Adventure (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Action-Adventure.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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The Darkest Tales — Into the Nightmare
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5.0x vs typical
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Overwhelmingly Positive
The Darkest Tales
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≈ 23k–38k
2.5x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.