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How many copies did Mýrdalssandur, Iceland sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 39k–63k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mýrdalssandur, Iceland and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mýrdalssandur, Iceland's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 145k–308k
best case 12.8M (Assetto Corsa)
Games like Mýrdalssandur, Iceland

A typical game among these

≈ 145k–308k copies

≈ $241k–$780k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Assetto Corsa at ≈ 9.8M–15.9M copies, ≈ $53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share VR (6 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + VR, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Simulation + Racing + Automobile Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2016. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 52 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Solus Project
2016
Est. copies
≈ 109k–178k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalAdventure
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
52x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Google Earth VR
2016
Est. copies
≈ 173k–281k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Very Positive
VRFree to Play
Tabletop Simulator
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.0M–$53.8M after Steam's cut $36.4M–$82.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
75k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
TabletopBoard Game
Receiver
2013
Est. copies
≈ 265k–430k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$363k–$977k after Steam's cut $661k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
The Way of Life Free Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 255k–414k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayWalking Simulator
Emily Wants To Play
2015
Est. copies
≈ 114k–185k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$156k–$420k after Steam's cut $284k–$645k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Heaven Island - VR MMO
2015
Est. copies
≈ 100k–162k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$54k–$146k after Steam's cut $99k–$225k before Steam's cut
$1.99
2k reviews
Mixed
Walking SimulatorAdventure

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