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How many copies did Sunset Shapes sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 496–806
$408–$1k after Steam's cut $742–$2k before Steam's cut
from 20 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sunset Shapes and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sunset Shapes's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k
best case 3k (Joe Wander and the Enigmatic Adventures)
Games like Sunset Shapes

A typical game among these

≈ 2k copies

≈ $4k–$11k after Steam's cut

from ~71 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Joe Wander and the Enigmatic Adventures at ≈ 2k–4k copies, ≈ $18k–$49k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18 reviews in their first month; the range was 9 to 53.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Hidden Object (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Physics + Puzzle, priced around $30.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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AdventureExploration

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