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How many copies did BOT.vinnik Chess: Combination Lessons sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
from 128 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid BOT.vinnik Chess: Combination Lessons and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BOT.vinnik Chess: Combination Lessons's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.0M–13.7M
best case 16.6M (Lethal Company)
Games like BOT.vinnik Chess: Combination Lessons

A typical game among these

≈ 8.0M–13.7M copies

≈ $54.6M–$87.0M after Steam's cut

from ~222k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Lethal Company at ≈ 12.7M–20.6M copies, ≈ $34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 24k reviews in their first month; the range was 835 to 55k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (6 of 8) and Horror (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + First-Person, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel
2020
Est. copies
≈ 223k–362k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$735k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$11.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ChessTime Travel
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
Lethal Company
2023
Est. copies
≈ 12.7M–20.6M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut $63.3M–$144.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
511k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Content Warning
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$7.99
164k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Metro Exodus
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$74.9M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person

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