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How many copies did Thymesia sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 254k–413k
$1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
from 10k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thymesia and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Thymesia's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 205k–596k
best case 1.2M (Salt and Sanctuary)
Games like Thymesia

A typical game among these

≈ 205k–596k copies

≈ $1.9M–$5.5M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Salt and Sanctuary at ≈ 915k–1.5M copies, ≈ $4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Souls-like (4 of 4) and Dark Fantasy (3 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Metroidvania, priced around $18.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Death's Gambit: Afterlife
2018
Est. copies
≈ 171k–278k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$939k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Mortal Shell
2021
Est. copies
≈ 300k–488k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
12k reviews
Mixed
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Hellpoint
2020
Est. copies
≈ 112k–183k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$34.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
Souls-likeSci-fi
Salt and Sanctuary
2016
Est. copies
≈ 915k–1.5M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.2M–$18.7M before Steam's cut
$17.99
22k reviews
Very Positive

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