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How many copies did The Day Before sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 575k–934k
from 23k reviews (Overwhelmingly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Day Before and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Day Before's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 43k–81k
best case 37.9M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like The Day Before

A typical game among these

≈ 43k–81k copies

≈ $457k–$1.2M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.9M–46.9M copies, ≈ $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 497 to 251k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (4 of 8) and Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Zombies, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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320x vs typical
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SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Left 4 Dead 2
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1.8x vs typical
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HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.9M–46.9M
659x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
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158x vs typical
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$66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut
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SteamSpy under 20k
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$41k–$109k after Steam's cut $74k–$168k before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
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