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How many copies did The Citadel sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 78k–126k
$320k–$860k after Steam's cut $582k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Citadel and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Citadel's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 843k–2.1M
best case 13.6M (Half-Life)
Games like The Citadel

A typical game among these

≈ 843k–2.1M copies

≈ $4.0M–$6.6M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Half-Life at ≈ 10.4M–16.9M copies, ≈ $28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (7 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Classic, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + 1990's + Sci-fi; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 1998 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DOOM + DOOM II
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.6M after Steam's cut $9.2M–$20.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
29k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
Montaro
2016
Est. copies
≈ 506k–823k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$138k–$371k after Steam's cut $251k–$570k before Steam's cut
$0.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MemesCute
Half-Life: Opposing Force
1999
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before Steam's cut
$4.99
29k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Quake
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
Half-Life
1998
Est. copies
≈ 10.4M–16.9M
7.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
164k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
DUSK
2018
Est. copies
≈ 778k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.5M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
26k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Boomer ShooterFPS
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun
2023
Est. copies
≈ 454k–738k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$21.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Boomer ShooterFPS
Half-Life: Blue Shift
2001
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$4.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction

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