How much revenue did Scrapnaut: Prologue make?

Scrapnaut: Prologue is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How many copies did Scrapnaut: Prologue sell?

Q: How many copies did Scrapnaut: Prologue sell?

17k to 28k copies, based on its 702 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 17k–28k; from 702 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Scrapnaut: Prologue and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Scrapnaut: Prologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 9.4M–16.8M

best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)

Games like Scrapnaut: Prologue

A typical game among these

≈ 9.4M–16.8M copies

≈ $108.2M–$187.9M after Steam's cut

from ~350k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 178k reviews in their first month; the range was 86k to 558k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Crafting (8 of 8) and Base-Building (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
When they shipped: 5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Valheim 2026	Est. copies ≈ 13.9M–22.6M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $114.9M–$308.9M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	562k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017	Est. copies ≈ 26.8M–43.5M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	779k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Raft 2022	Est. copies ≈ 9.4M–15.3M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	379k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalMultiplayer
Factorio 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut	$35.00	236k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationBase-Building
Sons Of The Forest 2024	Est. copies ≈ 8.0M–12.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $65.7M–$176.6M after Steam's cut $119.4M–$271.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	321k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World
Scrap Mechanic 2026	Est. copies ≈ 3.1M–5.0M too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.3M–$65.4M after Steam's cut $44.2M–$100.6M before Steam's cut	$28.99	123k reviews Very Positive	BuildingSandbox
Satisfactory 2024	Est. copies ≈ 6.9M–11.3M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $76.3M–$205.2M after Steam's cut $138.8M–$315.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	280k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Base-BuildingAutomation
V Rising 2024	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M too small to compare SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $32.8M–$88.2M after Steam's cut $59.6M–$135.6M before Steam's cut	$34.99	137k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World