How much revenue did Valheim make?

$114.9M–$308.9M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Valheim sell?

Q: How many copies did Valheim sell?

13.9M to 22.6M copies, based on its 562k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 13.9M–22.6M; $114.9M–$308.9M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.2M before Steam's cut; from 562k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Valheim and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Valheim's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 14.2M–22.8M

best case 129.3M (Terraria)

Games like Valheim

A typical game among these

≈ 14.2M–22.8M copies

≈ $133.7M–$178.6M after Steam's cut

from ~491k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Crafting (5 of 5) and Open World Survival Craft (5 of 5).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Crafting, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Sandbox + PvP + 2D; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2026, and 1 of the 5 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Rust 2018	Est. copies ≈ 42.7M–69.3M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	1.4M reviews Very Positive	SurvivalCrafting
Terraria 2011	Est. copies ≈ 98.5M–160.1M 3.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.6M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Don't Starve Together 2016	Est. copies ≈ 22.6M–36.8M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	544k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Palworld 2026	Est. copies ≈ 12.2M–19.8M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue $100.5M–$270.1M after Steam's cut $182.7M–$415.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	491k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldSurvival
Raft 2022	Est. copies ≈ 9.4M–15.3M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	379k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalMultiplayer