How much revenue did Rust make?

$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Rust sell?

Q: How many copies did Rust sell?

42.7M to 69.3M copies, based on its 1.4M Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 42.7M–69.3M; $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut; from 1.4M reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rust and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rust's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 27.8M–68.8M

best case 129.3M (Terraria)

Games like Rust

A typical game among these

≈ 27.8M–68.8M copies

≈ $205.3M–$457.0M after Steam's cut

from ~819k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Crafting (5 of 8) and Survival (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2007 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Terraria 2011	Est. copies ≈ 98.5M–160.1M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.6M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Unturned 2017	Est. copies ≈ 19.4M–31.6M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	565k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlaySurvival
Team Fortress 2 2007	Est. copies ≈ 79.1M–128.6M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.3M reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayHero Shooter
Baldur's Gate 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 21.3M–34.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	859k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGCharacter Customization
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017	Est. copies ≈ 26.8M–43.5M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	779k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Don't Starve Together 2016	Est. copies ≈ 22.6M–36.8M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	544k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Stardew Valley 2016	Est. copies ≈ 43.5M–70.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics