How much revenue did Stardew Valley make?

$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Stardew Valley sell?

Q: How many copies did Stardew Valley sell?

43.5M to 70.7M copies, based on its 1.0M Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 43.5M–70.7M; $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut; from 1.0M reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Stardew Valley and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Stardew Valley's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 908k–1.4M

best case 5.3M (DAVE THE DIVER)

Games like Stardew Valley

A typical game among these

≈ 908k–1.4M copies

≈ $5.7M–$11.7M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Crafting (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: DAVE THE DIVER at ≈ 4.0M–6.6M copies, ≈ $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 43k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Crafting (3 of 8) and Farming Sim (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Management + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Management + Fishing + Relaxing; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2019 to 2026, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya 2021	Est. copies ≈ 815k–1.3M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut	$5.99	33k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
Necesse 2025	Est. copies ≈ 727k–1.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	29k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftMultiplayer
Core Keeper 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.7M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	68k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsOpen World Survival Craft
Sun Haven 2023	Est. copies ≈ 636k–1.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.4M–$11.8M after Steam's cut $8.0M–$18.1M before Steam's cut	$24.99	26k reviews Very Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics
Leaf Blower Revolution - Idle Game 2020	Est. copies ≈ 657k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	26k reviews Very Positive	IdlerClicker
Fields of Mistria 2026	Est. copies ≈ 886k–1.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.2M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.1M before Steam's cut	$13.99	36k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Early AccessFarming Sim
DAVE THE DIVER 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.6M 5.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	163k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
Forager 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival