How much revenue did Baldur's Gate 3 make?

$351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Baldur's Gate 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did Baldur's Gate 3 sell?

21.3M to 34.6M copies, based on its 859k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 21.3M–34.6M; $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut; from 859k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Baldur's Gate 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Baldur's Gate 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 20.7M–33.4M

best case 37.7M (ELDEN RING)

Games like Baldur's Gate 3

A typical game among these

≈ 20.7M–33.4M copies

≈ $233.3M–$649.8M after Steam's cut

from ~480k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ELDEN RING at ≈ 28.7M–46.6M copies, ≈ $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 327k reviews in their first month; the range was 326k to 347k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (6 of 8) and Third Person (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Souls-like + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 21.0M–34.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	429k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
ELDEN RING 2022	Est. copies ≈ 28.7M–46.6M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeOpen World
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	379k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
DARK SOULS™ III 2016	Est. copies ≈ 18.3M–29.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $302.7M–$813.9M after Steam's cut $550.4M–$1252.2M before Steam's cut	$59.99	441k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Warframe 2013	Est. copies ≈ 42.9M–69.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	678k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayAction RPG
Monster Hunter: World 2018	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $129.9M–$349.3M after Steam's cut $236.2M–$537.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	518k reviews Very Positive	Co-opMultiplayer
7 Days to Die 2024	Est. copies ≈ 9.9M–16.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $123.1M–$331.0M after Steam's cut $223.8M–$509.2M before Steam's cut	$44.99	401k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalZombies