How much revenue did Fallout 4 make?

$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Fallout 4 sell?

Q: How many copies did Fallout 4 sell?

21.0M to 34.1M copies, based on its 429k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 21.0M–34.1M; $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut; from 429k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fallout 4 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fallout 4's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 39.0M–91.1M

best case 133.2M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)

Games like Fallout 4

A typical game among these

≈ 39.0M–91.1M copies

≈ $552.0M–$894.3M after Steam's cut

from ~1.1M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.5M–164.9M copies.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 347k reviews in their first month; the range was 268k to 836k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Story Rich (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Crime.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.8M–71.2M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut	$49.99	898k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG
Black Myth: Wukong 2024	Est. copies ≈ 30.1M–48.9M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue $496.2M–$1334.2M after Steam's cut $902.2M–$2052.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MythologyAction RPG
Stardew Valley 2016	Est. copies ≈ 43.5M–70.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics
Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012	Est. copies ≈ 59.7M–97.0M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	944k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DrivingTransportation
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy 2015	Est. copies ≈ 101.5M–164.9M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.1M reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Baldur's Gate 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 21.3M–34.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	859k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGCharacter Customization
ELDEN RING 2022	Est. copies ≈ 28.7M–46.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeOpen World
Terraria 2011	Est. copies ≈ 98.5M–160.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.6M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox