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How many copies did CosmoDreamer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–6k
$8k–$22k after Steam's cut $15k–$34k before Steam's cut
from 149 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid CosmoDreamer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including CosmoDreamer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 668–4k
best case 8k (Is It Wrong to Try to Shoot 'em Up Girls in a Dungeon?)
Games like CosmoDreamer

A typical game among these

≈ 668–4k copies

≈ $1k–$10k after Steam's cut

from ~30 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Is It Wrong to Try to Shoot 'em Up Girls in a Dungeon? at ≈ 6k–10k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14 reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 96.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (7 of 8) and 2D Platformer (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Side Scroller + Shoot 'Em Up.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.