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How many copies did Wordle 4 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 13k–21k
$109k–$292k after Steam's cut $197k–$449k before Steam's cut
from 520 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Wordle 4 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Wordle 4's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–14k
best case 1.1M (Chants of Sennaar)
Games like Wordle 4

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–14k copies

≈ $958–$168k after Steam's cut

from ~120 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Chants of Sennaar at ≈ 869k–1.4M copies, ≈ $4.8M–$12.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 2k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Word Game (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Point & Click, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Adventure + Colorful + Point & Click; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Chants of Sennaar
2023
Est. copies
≈ 869k–1.4M
292x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.8M–$12.8M after Steam's cut $8.7M–$19.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleAdventure
Wordle 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 19k–31k
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$162k–$435k after Steam's cut $294k–$669k before Steam's cut
$30.62
775 reviews
Mostly Positive
PuzzleCasual
Wordle 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$118k–$317k after Steam's cut $214k–$487k before Steam's cut
$30.62
564 reviews
Mixed
PuzzleCasual
Trivia Vault Football Trivia
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$38k after Steam's cut $26k–$58k before Steam's cut
$13.99
120 reviews
Mixed
CasualIndie
HANGMAN
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$439–$1k after Steam's cut $798–$2k before Steam's cut
$0.99
56 reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorCasual
Write word
2018
Est. copies
≈ 547–889
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$600–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
$3.99
18 reviews
Mixed
IndieCasual
Quiz Pro - Guess Pictures
2020
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$61–$164 after Steam's cut $111–$253 before Steam's cut
$2.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
TriviaEducation
Wordle 5
2022
Est. copies
≈ 8k–12k
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$64k–$173k after Steam's cut $117k–$266k before Steam's cut
$30.62
308 reviews
Mixed
CasualSimulation

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