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How many copies did Yoshiwara Higanbana sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$149k–$401k after Steam's cut $271k–$617k before Steam's cut
from 486 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Yoshiwara Higanbana and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Yoshiwara Higanbana's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 43k–131k
best case 287k (Amnesia™: Memories)
Games like Yoshiwara Higanbana

A typical game among these

≈ 43k–131k copies

≈ $448k–$584k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Amnesia™: Memories at ≈ 219k–356k copies, ≈ $601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (8 of 8) and Otome (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Otome + Visual Novel, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Amnesia™: Memories
2015
Est. copies
≈ 219k–356k
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
OtomeVisual Novel
Hakuoki: Edo Blossoms
2018
Est. copies
≈ 34k–55k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$93k–$251k after Steam's cut $169k–$386k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
OtomeVisual Novel
Tailor Tales
2019
Est. copies
≈ 29k–48k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayOtome
Nameless ~The one thing you must recall~
2014
Est. copies
≈ 43k–70k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$354k–$951k after Steam's cut $643k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
766 reviews
Very Positive
Dating SimOtome
Hakuoki: Kyoto Winds
2017
Est. copies
≈ 80k–131k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$221k–$594k after Steam's cut $401k–$913k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
OtomeVisual Novel
Blood Code
2015
Est. copies
≈ 99k–160k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$271k–$729k after Steam's cut $493k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Visual NovelRomance
My Vow to My Liege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 102k–165k
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$280k–$752k after Steam's cut $509k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Female ProtagonistRomance
Nightshade/百花百狼
2017
Est. copies
≈ 28k–45k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$265k–$714k after Steam's cut $483k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$34.99
802 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
OtomeFemale Protagonist

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